SEA Hotels &
Resorts 2025–2026

Vietnam is the clearest outperformer in the region. CBRE places it alongside Japan, South Korea, and India as an APAC RevPAR recovery leader for H1 2025[CBRE] — the only SEA country in that group. Both ADR and occupancy moved positively in H1 2025, supported by international arrivals growing 9% in the first half of the year.[CBRE] The government's 25 million visitor target for 2026 (+16% on 2025's record) signals continued policy tailwind, not consolidation.[Vietnam Briefing]

Indonesia tells a split story. RevPAR grew in the year to July 2025 — but it was entirely ADR-driven, because occupancy fell in both Jakarta (MICE events dropped as government austerity bit) and Bali (tourist arrivals rose, but alternative lodging absorbed the volume).[HVS] The market is still running roughly 10% below 2019 RevPAR levels region-wide.[CBRE] That gap represents both the problem and the opportunity.

Thailand and Singapore are the laggards. Thailand's nationwide occupancy averaged 71.4% in 2025 — essentially flat year-on-year — and ADR slipped to THB 1,819, down 3.4% through November 2025.[Krungsri] CoStar/STR named Singapore and Thailand among just three APAC markets with no RevPAR gains in April 2025.[CoStar/STR] Singapore's H1 2025 ADR fell slightly as new supply absorbed demand, with occupancy only nudging upward via extended stay strategies.[CBRE] Malaysia has the thinnest data of the five — Zerin Properties reports ADR rising in Q1 2025 versus 2024, but no RevPAR or occupancy numbers are publicly available at the national level.[Zerin Properties]

Marriott International recorded its third consecutive record development year in 2025 — 187 organic deals, 28,000+ rooms, a 32% increase on 2024 — and ended the year with 86,000+ rooms in its APAC pipeline across 27 brands.[TTG Asia] Rajeev Menon, Marriott's president for Asia-Pacific (excluding China), confirmed regional growth remains the priority through 2026–2027. Ascott matched the pace: 102 new properties signed in 2025 (+27% year-on-year), with new SEA entries in Phuket and Langkawi specifically named.[TTG Asia]

ONYX Hospitality Group — operating Amari, OZO, and Shama brands — is advancing in Thailand and Malaysia simultaneously, with hotel openings confirmed in Malaysia and property upgrades across Bangkok, Koh Samui, and Phuket.[Travel and Tour World] H.I.S. is bringing five new Henn na Hotel locations to Southeast Asia by end-2025, targeting the region's mid-market tech-curious traveller. No data is available on Accor, Minor Hotels, Dusit, or IHG pipeline figures for SEA specifically — a meaningful gap given their regional presence.

The supply picture carries a risk that the headline numbers obscure. Thailand is already absorbing new rooms in markets running flat occupancy. Bangkok, Phuket, and Pattaya concentrate the majority of existing supply — more rooms in those corridors without a Chinese tourism recovery sharpens the RevPAR pressure. The better pipeline story is in secondary cities and frontier destinations: Langkawi, Phuket's outer zones, Vietnam's coast, and Bali's emerging corridors — where demand is growing faster than formal branded supply.

In Thailand — the most-data-rich market in the region — Booking.com holds 44% of total hotel booking value and Agoda holds 20%, giving the two platforms a combined 64% share.[Hoteliers.guru] Direct hotel websites captured 10% in 2025, up from prior years driven by AI concierge tools and loyalty incentives — but that improvement is fragile. OTAs responded with their own AI search integrations and expanded partnership programmes. Traveloka dominates Indonesia and Vietnam through localisation — language, payment rails, and mobile-first design — but specific share figures for those markets are not publicly available.

Commission structures compound the dependency. Industry-standard OTA commissions to hotels run 15–25% of room revenue — figures the platforms do not publish officially. Affiliate programme rates (a visible proxy) show Trip.com paying affiliates up to 8%, Traveloka up to 5.6%, Agoda 4.8%, and Booking.com 3%.[Ecomobi] These are affiliate payouts, not hotel commissions — but they signal relative platform economics. A hotel paying 20% commission on 60% of its revenue is effectively sharing 12 cents of every dollar earned with a platform it does not own.

The mechanism behind OTA dominance is structural, not accidental. OTAs aggregate demand from source markets — China (Trip.com, Agoda), Europe (Booking.com), and SEA domestic (Traveloka) — where the hotel itself has no marketing presence or brand recognition. Rate parity clauses historically prevented hotels from undercutting OTA prices on direct channels. Even where parity rules have loosened, most independent and mid-market hotels lack the CRM infrastructure to convert lookers to direct bookers at scale. The 10% direct figure in Thailand is not a floor from which recovery grows — it is a structural ceiling for operators without deliberate investment in loyalty and direct booking technology.

Malaysia has the most documented and active regulatory change programme in the region for 2025–2026. From January 2026, stamp duty for foreign property buyers rises to 8%, directly raising acquisition costs for hotel investors entering through property purchase structures.[Invest Malaysia] Simultaneously, Johor's Hotel Enactment Bill imposes a RM3 per-night hotel tax on all overnight visitors, funding tourism infrastructure but adding an operational cost layer to budget and mid-market properties where margins are thinnest.[Johor Enactment] Digital platforms — Airbnb, Traveloka, Booking.com — face expanded Tourism Tax liability from January 2026: platforms handling both booking and payment must now collect and remit RM10 per room per night for foreign guests to Malaysia's Royal Customs Department (RMCD).[Malaysia Customs]

For Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, the research available does not provide sufficient 2026-specific regulatory detail to assess investment return impact with confidence. What is known: Singapore prohibits short-term rentals under three months without a licence under the Hotels Act, with enforcement active but no new 2026 changes identified. Indonesia applies foreign ownership caps (typically up to 67% direct, higher via the BKPM investment board), and Bali has local restrictions on Airbnb-style platforms that reflect political pressure on the traditional hospitality sector. Thailand's Hotel Act permits up to 49% foreign direct ownership, with higher stakes available through BOI promotion schemes. Vietnam's Law on Investment caps foreign hotel ownership at 30–49% outside special economic zones.

The regulatory trajectory across the region points in one direction: higher compliance cost, greater platform accountability, and tightening foreign ownership structures — particularly for entry via residential or mixed-use property purchase. Investors structuring through joint ventures with local partners, or via BOI/special zone schemes in Thailand and Vietnam, face fewer constraints — but those structures require longer lead times and local relationship capital most foreign investors do not have on arrival.

The base case rests on gradual growth — not a boom. Regional hotel earnings are projected to rise from roughly $503 million (September 2025) to approximately $1.6 billion by 2028, a 224% increase that is driven disproportionately by Indonesia, where a low earnings base meets large-scale demand potential.[PATA] Thailand stabilises occupancy at around 75% in primary destinations from 2026, while Vietnam scales international arrivals toward 25 million on a government-backed target. The leading indicators to watch: airline seat capacity growth into secondary SEA hubs (Danang, Chiang Mai, Lombok), and the pace of Chinese outbound travel recovery — currently the single most important unresolved variable in the region.

The downside scenario does not require a crisis. It only requires China's outbound recovery to stall below 50% of pre-2019 levels while the supply pipeline — 86,000+ rooms in Marriott's APAC inventory alone — keeps delivering into markets already running flat occupancy. Thailand is most exposed: concentrated supply in Bangkok, Phuket, and Pattaya, political uncertainty that has historically disrupted tourism stimulus, and an ADR that was already declining through November 2025. Malaysia runs negative hotel earnings in this scenario, as the sector absorbs new regulatory costs without the revenue base to offset them.

The upside scenario requires two things happening simultaneously: Chinese outbound travel recovering to above 75% of 2019 levels, and visa liberalisation expanding across Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Both are plausible by 2028 — neither is guaranteed. If they converge, Indonesia overtakes Thailand as the region's top earnings contributor, Vietnam's coastal resort corridor hits genuine capacity constraints, and the institutional capital that has been watching from Japan pivots to SEA. The signal to watch is not ADR data — it is direct flight capacity from Tier 2 Chinese cities (Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan) to secondary SEA destinations. That is the canary.

None of these signals require proprietary data to monitor. Airline schedule databases (OAG, Cirium) show seat capacity changes on a rolling 90-day basis. Visa policy changes are announced via government gazette. Chinese outbound data — passport issuance, border crossing statistics, and Union Pay transaction data — is publicly available with a 4–6 week lag. The market will telegraph its direction before STR publishes the RevPAR confirmation.

The single most important signal is flight capacity from Tier 2 Chinese cities to secondary SEA destinations. Bangkok–Shanghai is already maxed. The question is whether Chengdu–Danang or Chongqing–Lombok routes open at scale — those routes carry the marginal demand the region's growth case depends on.